In 2019, there will be greater uncertainty in the global political and economic landscape, and trade protectionism, unilateralism, geopolitical conflicts and populist activities will pose a series of challenges to the global political and economic order. According to the latest data from the international monetary fund, global GDP growth in 2019 was only 2.9 percent, down 0.7 percentage points from 2018. Global economic growth is slowing, consumer demand is slumping and supply chains are wobbling. In the face of common challenges at the macro level, data shows that in 2019, the global total monitor market shipments reached 130 million units, which was basically the same as in 2018, with a slight decline.

Y2017-2019 global total LED TV display market shipment size and trend (Msets,%)

Note: the above data do not include AIO shipments

From 2018 to 2019, the shipment scale of the global total display market will continue to exceed 130 million units, which does not mean that the demand of the display market is going against the trend, but the supply chain is in a state of stress growth based on the uncertainty of trade friction. In combination with the specific situation of the global display market in 2019, the differences between it and the stress-induced growth in 2018 can be distinguished:

1. The market stress is weakened.

2. The market environment tends to be stable and demand improves in the fourth quarter.

(1) the tariff negotiations were basically concluded and the market environment became stable.

(2) market stress adjustment, brand inventory improved compared with the same period in 2018

(3) the overall price of the global display declines, driving consumer demand.

(4) structural opportunities, the main regional market growth.

Market forecast in 2020: the market size will fall, the structural opportunity will activate the stock, and the epidemic will affect the supply and demand.

Under the premise of periodic cessation of trade friction, the stress response of the global monitor market in the face of environmental uncertainty will be further weakened. At the same time, the adjustment of the display industry chain has been pushed forward in 2019 in response to the risks of trade friction. These measures will once again reduce the likelihood of stress growth in the display market. Affected by this, we believes that the global total display market in 2020 will fall back to the normal before 2018, superposition epidemic impact, year-on-year will continue to decline. On this premise, in the long run, the market still needs to grasp structural opportunities, such as esports, high score, widescreen and curved surface; In the short term, the market risk in the first quarter is mainly from the new coronavirus outbreak.

1. Structural opportunities to revitalize the stock.

Throughout the years ship supply scale and size of global monitor panels change trend, it is not hard to find, is affected by technology and display application iteration, starting in 2012 after many years of recession, the global display market since 2017 has entered a relatively stable state of stock market, in 2018 ~ 2019 by macro environment uncertainty factors in excitability growth, this growth will fall in 2020, state of return of stock market. It is difficult for the stock market to realize the growth of quantity. The market vitality lies in grasping the structural opportunity and using the structural opportunity as the new increment to revitalize the stock.

2. The market in the first quarter: the epidemic affected the supply chain, and the supply and demand both decreased in the first quarter.

On the demand side, the demand of China's display market is affected by the epidemic, and the commercial market and offline consumer market will shrink significantly. Only the online market will continue to grow. It is estimated that the total domestic display shipment in the first quarter will decline by 20% compared with the same period last year. The outbreak also exists in markets outside China, affecting consumer confidence and demand. Tightening on the supply side will further affect demand in the end market. We estimates that in 2020, the global total display market in the first quarter of shipments of about 28.1 million units, a year-on-year decline of 8%.

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