According to the consulting survey, as the shipment performance of consumer products such as smartphones, Chromebooks and TVs in the second half of this year was not as good as expected, the demand for retail memory cards, USB flash drives and other products continued to be sluggish, and only data center and enterprise customers have strong demand support . On the whole, the inventory level on the purchasing side is gradually rising, and the subsequent purchasing power is suppressed. The shortage of NAND Flash controller ICs has gradually eased with the decline in demand. Therefore, the NAND Flash quotations in the fourth quarter will begin to decline, and the overall contract The price will drop slightly by 0~5%.

Client SSD prices fell by 3~8% in the fourth quarter, Enterprise SSD prices rose slightly by 0~5%

Countries are gradually unblocking, schools and offices have resumed normal operations one after another. In addition to the rapid decline in demand for Chromebooks, which are mainly for education, demand for consumer laptops has also slowed down. Only business laptops are expected to maintain growth. At present, the ODM manufacturing side is still affected by the shortage of various ICs. The closure of the city in Malaysia has further caused the deterioration of the PMIC supply situation. In addition to impacting the production of the PC side, it also simultaneously affected the SSD assembly capacity of some suppliers. In addition, the SSD market has gradually turned into an oversupply as the original factory rapidly increased the production capacity of the 128-layer or more generation. In order to avoid the accumulation of inventory, the original factory will adopt a more aggressive price strategy to reduce output. Therefore, the client SSD contract price in the fourth quarter will reverse downward, with an estimated price drop of 3-8%.

After orders for the data center side increased sharply for the second consecutive quarter, the inventory level gradually increased, resulting in a decline in demand in the fourth quarter. Even if the order demand of small and medium enterprises continues to drive the momentum of orders from enterprise SSD brands to the fourth quarter, servers are also affected by the shortage of IC parts, so server shipments have declined by nearly 9% compared with the third quarter, which simultaneously drives enterprise SSDs The demand bit fell by 7%. In terms of supply, Intel enterprise SSD main control IC packages are mainly located in Malaysia. The local city closure in response to the epidemic has severely impacted the delivery of the parts. The delivery of parts in the fourth quarter of some packaging and testing plants cannot be improved, which will lead to the Intel enterprise SSD in the fourth quarter. The shipment position has been revised down from the third quarter. In view of Intel’s high market share in this category, it has a significant impact on the contract price. It is predicted that the enterprise SSD contract price in the fourth quarter will continue to rise by 0~5%. This price adjustment is mainly reflected The impact of the shortage of parts on the supply side, rather than the growth of demand.

Terminal demand has dropped significantly, and eMMC prices have dropped by 5-10%

After the traditional peak season for stocking major consumer products such as TVs and flat panels ended, coupled with the gradual withdrawal of the US subsidy policy, demand began to weaken. Countries are gradually unblocking and schools have resumed normal operations, which has a significant impact on the demand for education-related laptops and tablets. In addition, buyers have stepped up stocking due to concerns about the shortage of NAND Flash controller ICs in the first half of this year, and the inventory level has risen. , Thereby suppressing eMMC orders. Although the production capacity of low-capacity 2D MLC NAND is stable, and the supply of NAND Flash controllers is limited by the full capacity of the fab 28/40nm process, the price is difficult to support under the condition of significant decline in terminal demand. The prices of related products are in the second quarter After the sharp rise, there will be a lot of room for downward revision. It is estimated that the decline in the fourth quarter will fall at 5-10%.

As supply increases and demand weakens, UFS prices fall by 0~5%

As the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has been difficult to control, after entering the fourth quarter, the stocking demand for new phones and flagship models of various brands will gradually slow down, and the peak stocking season will come to an end. Facing the next low demand season, UFS is expected Purchasing momentum will further slow down. In terms of supply, with the active introduction of the 1XX layer in the brand factories in the first quarter of this year, the number of layers of products used by mobile customers and PC OEMs are currently relatively similar. After the market satisfaction has increased, PC products have failed to meet the problem of ODM factory length and short materials. If the situation is resolved, the supply of more high-level products will be released. With increasing supply and weakening demand, UFS quotations are expected to fall by 0 to 5% in the fourth quarter.

Demand for major applications weakened, and NAND Flash Wafer prices fell 10~15% quarter-on-quarter, the most

Except for the brief period of April to mid-May related to the demand for cryptocurrency, the demand for retail terminal products in 2021 has been weak since the beginning of the year. Since the second quarter, due to the continuing epidemic in India and Southeast Asia, the sales of memory cards and U disks have been weak, while the SSDs in retail retail have been unable to sell as a set of assembled computers due to the shortage of graphic cards. Although the stock-out situation was slightly improved due to the sudden drop in the price of cryptocurrency, mining demand has recovered again as the price of cryptocurrency fluctuates, which depresses retail SSD sales. It is worth noting that the end product The trend of upstream components is divergent, which has exerted tremendous pressure on module factories.

Given that the demand for notebooks, smart phones, and TVs is not as expected, it is expected that the pressure on suppliers to sell NAND Flash wafer inventory will gradually increase. At present, some suppliers have released the news that they are willing to actively supply in the fourth quarter. However, the continuous expansion of the PMIC gap has caused difficulties in the shipment of enterprise SSDs, which will cause heavy sales of NAND Flash wafers. In addition, manufacturers such as WDC and Micron have begun to actively provide samples of 128, 112 and 176 layers of products to the module factory for testing and introduction. After the introduction of higher layers, the shipping cost can be further improved, and the original factory The ability to gain more room for price reductions. It is estimated that 3D NAND wafer will fall by 10-15% in the fourth quarter, the highest among all products.

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