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NOR Flash enters an upward cycle, optimistic about the quarterly price increase in the first half year

2021-01-29

According to the report, NOR Flash is entering an upward cycle. In the first half of the year, prices will rise quarter by quarter, and the operations of Winbond Electronics, Macronix, and ESMT Technology are expected to heat up.

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For the storage market, not only is it affected by the continued shortage and price increase of semiconductor chips, but leading companies such as silicon wafers, packaging and testing, etc. have successively increased their prices, plus it is an important link in the storage industry chain, which undoubtedly intensifies the follow-up of market insiders There will continue to be out of stock psychology, but behind the price increase in the storage market, the original factory strategy has a greater impact.


Foreign investors said that from recent channel news, NOR Flash suppliers are bullish on prices in the first half of the year, especially for low-density NOR products. It is expected that NOR Flash prices will rise by 5-10% in the first quarter and are expected to increase in the second quarter. Increase the price by 3-7%.


Since the fourth quarter of last year, the NOR Flash industry has faced a tight supply situation, and the shortage continues to intensify. The industry's orders are overwhelmed. Winbond Electronics reported that the first half of the NOR Flash production capacity was fully loaded, and the price continued to rise. The first quarter increased by 7-10%. The growth rate of each quarter in the second and third quarters will be about 10%, and it is expected that the production capacity will continue to be fully loaded in the second half of the year.


Affected by the shortage of resources, whether the server can relay the demand is the key to the market!


Since December 2020, semiconductor companies such as Renesas, Silan Microelectronics, Lite-On Technology, Fuman Electronics, Ruineng Semiconductor, STMicroelectronics and other semiconductor companies have successively issued price increase notices. So far, the market situation of most component supply shortages is still not Seeing improvement, and the delivery cycle of power management ICs, touch ICs, etc. has even been extended to 2-3 months, and the market conditions of tight supply of components have further deteriorated.


In terms of NAND Flash, with the development of 3D technology, the original factory began to mainly promote 128-layer and 176-layer 3D NAND. Compared with the previous generation technology, it has more advantages in cost. This leads to the reduction of 96-layer/64-layer 3D NAND resources and also affects In the short-term NAND Flash market supply, coupled with the continued strong demand for notebooks and Xinchuang applications, the industry and channel SSD prices have both risen again this week.

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In terms of DRAM, the overall production capacity of Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix is limited, and the new generation of 1αnm technology has not yet entered the mass production stage. On the demand side, in addition to the steady demand for notebooks and Xinchuang PCs, Samsung, Xiaomi, and Huawei have all released new mobile phones in advance. In addition, the server market has also performed well on DRAM demand, making the overall DRAM market in short supply. The industry and channels The price of memory sticks continues to rise.

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After the significant price increase last month, the storage market in the first half of January 2021 still maintained a steady trend, and the number of working days decreased in the following February due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, coupled with a rebound in the “epidemic” Affecting logistics and other tensions, the situation of tight supply in a short period of time cannot be alleviated, so the storage market in the first quarter of 2021 is expected to continue to maintain a steady trend.


However, by the second quarter, both the original factory's production capacity of NAND Flash and DRAM will increase to a certain extent, and the supply shortage can be alleviated. On the demand side, the notebook market is expected to continue to maintain a steady demand. However, the mobile phone market is expected to cool down after the launch of new models due to the early release of new models from various mobile phone brand manufacturers, and demand is bound to decline. Therefore, the server market demand has become the "savior" of the Q2 storage market. So far, the original factory is still very optimistic about the server market demand.


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